24) Economic Timeline for United States: 1780s thru 1930s

Notes for Economics www.saseassociates.com Let’s follow the economic timeline from 1787 into the 1930s. In assessment, a few attributes become apparent in all three Kondratiev Waves. During each one, the number of prosperous years exceeds the not-so-prosperous ones. If we count the years of prosperity as those above trend, the ratio is two-thirds above and one-third below trend. The second attribute is the sequence of fluctuations between major wars and their subsequent recessions. Each of the first three waves had a major war, The War of 1812, The War Between the States, and the First World War, respectively. Each period of prosperity, either during or immediately after a major war, is followed first by a Post-War Recession/Depression and, later, by a second one. Also, there are two to three more post-war recession years than there were years of war-related prosperity. This fact challenges the old adage that war is good for the economy. Also, periods of extended prosperity tend to be more stable than sudden boom/busts. Two boom/bust cycles occurred back to back during the expansionary phase of the second economic wave.