28 - The consequences of climate change (in our lifetimes)
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SOURCES: 1:48 "Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland" Ola M. Johannessen et al, Science November 2005 2:10 "Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss by Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations" -- S. B. Luthcke, et al., Science November 2006 2:12 "Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet" -- J. L. Chen, et al., Science 2006 3:19 "Satellite gravity measurements confirm accelerated melting of Greenland ice sheet" J. Chen et al., Science, 2006 3:22 "Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss by Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations" -- Luthcke et al, Science, 2006 3:24 "Lower estimates of Antarctic sea level contribution from satellite gravimetry" King et al, Nature 2012 3:26 Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling" -- Rignot et al, 2008 3:28 "Recent Contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise from GRACE" 3:30 "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance" Shepherd et al Science 2012 4:01 "Recent Contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise from GRACE" 4:24 "Toward prediction of environmental Arctic change" W Maslowski, JC Kinney, J Jakacki - Computing in Science 2007 5:25 "Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise" -- WT Pfeffer et al., Science 2008 5:40 "Global sea level linked to global temperature" -- Martin Vermeer and Stefan Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009 6:10 Table adapted from "Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes" -- R. J. Nicholls et al., OECD 2008 8:02 "Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise" -- WT Pfeffer et al., Science 2008 8:57 "Climate: Observations, projections and Impacts" -- Met Office 2013. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide/science/uk/obs-projections-impacts 10:05 "Precipitation and its extremes in changed climates" -- T. Schneider and P. A. O'Gorman, Journal of Climate 2008 11:30 "Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios" -- Parry et al, Global Environmental Change 2004 11:52 "Threats to Water Supplies in the Tropical Andes" Bradley et al., Science 2006 11:55 "Evidence for Upwelling of Corrosive "Acidified" Water onto the Continental Shelf" -- Richard A. Feely, Science 2008 12:01 "Coral Reefs: Present Problems and Future Concerns Resulting from Anthropogenic Disturbance" -- RH Richmond, American Zoologist 1993 12:06 "Global Warming and Coastal Erosion" -- Zhang et al., Climatic Change 12: 08 "Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models" -- Cramer et al., Global Change Biology 2001 12:25 "The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications" -- Goldenberg, Science 2001 12:34 "A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents" Petoukhov, V., and V. A. Semenov, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, Nov 2010 14:08 I backtracked this new "CAGW" label, and it seems to have started with author Michael Crichton in 2007, but was popularized in 2010 with an opinion piece in the Washington Post. 14:42 Table adapted from "Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes" -- R. J. Nicholls et al., OECD 2008 15:07 "Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries" Anne B. Hollowed 15:12 "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change" -- UK Government report, 2006 17:47 Someone queried my statement "the amount we've spent on developing the world's first nuclear fusion reactor is barely 2/3 the cost of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico." I don't have my notes with me so I can't give you my source for the $28 billion. So let's look at a couple of other ratios. According to the website of ITER (the Experimental Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), if all the manufacturing is done in Europe the estimated cost of building ITER, supported by the United States, the European Union, India, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, has been estimated at approximately $14.4 billion (at April 2016 exchange rates.) That's around a third the estimated cost of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico ($42 billion)." (SOURCE: http://www.iter.org/faq#Do_we_really_know_how_much_ITER_will_cost) "Based on the European evaluation, we can estimate the cost of ITER construction for the seven members at approximately EUR 13 billion, if all the manufacturing is done in Europe." ) Or, looking at it another way, the cost of building the National Ignition Facility -- a key research project into nuclear fusion -- was less that 10% of the cost of the BP oil spill.
Comments
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potholer54
Can you please produce a video of some scientifically sound ways that we can do that will reduce greenhouse gases and energy choices that realistically can replace fossil fuels? Perhaps some good examples and some bad ones supported by political parties. I think we need solutions that make sense and you might have come across some of them in your studies. I'm not asking for a discussion, I am just looking for some ideas that I can support politically. -
I did some research and there is not established position when it comes to hurricanes number increase. I am also not concerned about sea level rise. People can adapt to that easily. Only thing that i am concerned are corals, but that seems to be due to human taste for pearls and fancy collections, not acidification. But need to end nevertheless. About crops is mixed data i need further research.
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14:53 fewer hurricanes? I thought warming would increase the frequency, perhaps I misunderstood
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I bet the study that shows some areas having a decrease in precipitation does not take into account that many trees (probably some plants as well) release molecules into the atmosphere that act as a catalysts reducing the energy barrier for water to precipitate into clouds. I believe that most of the rainforests will expand back into the deserts stabilizing regional day/night temperature fluctuations. The fact is that there are way too many missing puzzle pieces to know for sure at this point. I am sure that we know that there is much more that we don't understand about the climate than what we do understand about it. I feel that it will most likely be a beneficial to all life on this planet having both a higher partial pressure of CO2 and higher average temperatures. So what if some cities get flooded. People will move inland as they have in the past during previous sea level rises, and new technology will likely be developed to adapt some of the cities. I am very excited to see what will happen in my lifetime. These are interesting times we live in.
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Well, all I have to add, is that we danes can get strawberries from Greenland nowadays.....
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I am alarmed. I believe these feedback loops will cause a runaway warming. One of the major holes in the data is the particulates in the atmosphere from fossil fuels. These reflect sunlight and spare us the true effect of our carbon debt. Like in the 70s when the pollution levels caused a mini cooling then suddenly turned around when the clean air act was passed, cutting all these emissions sources won't counter the effects we have already set in motion.
There was a limited study from the 9/11 air ban that showed a 3-4C increase when air traffic instantly ceased. Not only do we need to stop putting CO2 into the air, we need to remove 2000GT of it to restore the balance while coming up with some way to reflect all the extra sunlight. We need to take the blanket off and turn down the heat. One or the other won't stop these feedback loops. -
Your material is first class.
Your presentation needs some help. -
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@13:30 : oceans warm, hold less CO2, and release it back into the atmosphere. Isn't this stepping into one of the denialist's apparent contradictions: oceans getting warmer, so they should hold less CO2, but conventional climatologists claim that the oceans are currently a net CO2 sink?
Is there a better way of describing what's going on with CO2 dissolved in the ocean? -
2:34 Zwally of NASA has also found an increase of ice thickness on Antarctica.
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1:13, no, thats not the only way to get around sea level rise. The other is to point out that the arctic ice cap is floating on water, and its melt with have absolutely no effect on sea levels at all, since it already displaces its weight in water,
You might also read the scientific literature and point out that the vast majority of sea level rise has been due to thermal expansion. Ice cap melt has contributed very little in the last century.
What has also contributed to the sense of sea level rise is land sinkage, due to urbanisation and water table reduction in places where tide gauges are located. -
potholer, do you think the anti-science rhetoric has been kept strong in recent years because of reporters stirring up anti-establishment fears and "globalism", scientists being "elitists", corrupt, etc?
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I've heard people suggest that maybe the old companies are benefiting from this climate change denying but I'm not certain if that's true.
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