And Now for the Hard Part: China's Economic Adjustment After Three Miracle Decades - Michael Pettis
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World Disorder Lecture Series - Michael Pettis Tuesday, February 2, 2016 In this public lecture, Michael Pettis will explore China’s tumultuous stock market and its impact on the global economy. A Wall Street veteran at Bear Stearns and Credit Suisse First Boston, Pettis has the unique distinction of having been right ahead of time in predicting the Chinese economic crisis. More videos on http://video.ias.edu
Comments
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He has said China is using the Japan case, China will have a flat growth rate of around 3/4% for a decade or 2. The fact is the work force has not been upgraded to higher level of what he said of productive investments to pull up the growth. That's what happened. Besides, they have political issue to deter from selling state own assets, therefore, China can't reduce it's debt.
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what does he mean by consumption decline? the % of consumption in GDP had been steadily growing since several years ago and china and multiple arguments/dicussions/experts had been referring to this whenever talking about how china's going to rely less and less on investment and export,
and what do you mean theres only 2 options? Korea, singapore, Hongkong, Taiwan, etc had never had the stagnation of Japan nor the so called painful process/negative GDP rate getting out of middle income area
also isnt it a bit too arrogant to say we need to see if china is doing XXX then it will mean Xi/Beijing is doing the RIGHT thing? youre basically saying you're seeing things all the governor, leaders of state banks, IMF tops didnt see, and simply point out a solution to the human economical growth, the century long question of why some countries got stuck in the middle income trap, i mean what are you doing here, why arent you leading countries like Brazil out of the middle income trap into a global economical power or telling the IMF tops how to deal with the china economical problems? -
And also might I add, the root of the problem is the wealth distribution system no longer works for the now much evolved Chinese society, to be more specific, government revenue, which explains the anti draft campaigns, the legal system, the stock market, the real estate market et cetera. Even when the government spends on infrastructures, the population can not produce enough value to consume, much like the case of high speed railway
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As a Chinese I agree with 90% what was said.
I know partial privatization needs to happen for deleverage to be successful but, it would not happen, because enough concentration of power could only truly be achieved in a crisis. That means, privatization would happen in a crisis rather than in a reform -
this is one fucking awesome lecture. thanks for posting this video.
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Pettis starts at 4:45
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US scholar are full of shit on Chinese economy for a long time, and it seems they still are.
51m 1sLenght
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