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How will our world be in 2033? In 2033 power will be less concentrated in developed countries: there will be no clear referee in an international order marked by the diversity of the players. National governments will see their power increasingly reduced in relation to other actors. The economic pendulum will move towards Asia, there will be a greater middle class in today ́s developing countries and more inequality in developed countries. We will be older, more urban and a highly qualified elite will be more cosmopolitan, while those less qualified will experience the risk of a structural unemployment: innovation will make us grow, but it could very well be a jobless growth. Individuals will be empowered by new technologies and natural resources will become scarcer and more expensive. On the basis of this background we have developed four scenarios. SCENARIO ONE: ‘Global governance’ The world evolves towards a multilateral governance where different organizations, including political institutions, govern in a coordinated and constructive way. Meanwhile Europe progresses towards the construction of a United States of Europe. This is the scenario which leads to the greatest economic growth, at both world level and for Spain, but inequality will rise. SCENARIO TWO: ‘Regional blocks’ Regional blocks compete against each other, increasing protectionist tendencies in the world economy. An economically cohesive Europe, with Germany in the driving seat, is one of them. Global growth is limited by protectionist measures that slow economic exchanges and productivity increases, leading to less pressure on the European Social Model and more redistribution of wealth than there would have been with more globalisation. SCENARIO THREE: ‘National protectionism’ A clear backwards shift in the process of globalisation and the strengthening of national political power in line with a smaller “a la carte” Europe. It is the most redistributive scenario, but with the weakest global economic growth. For Spain it is without doubt the worst scenario as, with no employment creation, it would only lead to the redistribution of poverty. SCENARIO FOUR: ‘Economic interests take the lead’ National and global political institutions are increasingly powerless against the forces of economic globalisation. Global economic growth is slower than in our best scenario and growing inequality is exacerbated. A two-speed Europe takes shape. We identify also a few disruptive ‘black swans’: the possibility of a drastic American withdrawal, the risk of China collapsing, the rupturing of the Eurozone, a massive technological breakdown and serious security challenges arising from the Middle East and North Africa.