Arthur Kroeber: "China’s Economy: Powerhouse, Menace, or the Next Japan?"
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Arthur Kroeber speaks about the future of China's economy at the Paulson Institute's Contemporary China Speakers Series on May 16, 2016. In the last three decades China has surged from impoverished backwater to become the world’s second-biggest economy and largest trading nation. Yet as the recent tumult on global markets shows, China risks destabilizing the world as it makes the hard shift from an investment-driven to a consumer-oriented economy. The headwinds of a rapidly aging population, a battle against rampant corruption and an enormous national debt are also slowing the country’s growth. Will China mature into a global economic leader, trigger a crisis, or stagnate like Japan? Arthur Kroeber, one of the world’s leading commentators on the Chinese economy, tackles these tough questions. Arthur R. Kroeber is head of research at Gavekal, a financial-services firm based in Hong Kong, founder of the China-focused Gavekal Dragonomics research service, and editor of China Economic Quarterly. He divides his time between Beijing and New York. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, he spent fifteen years as a financial and economic journalist in China and South Asia. He is a senior non-resident fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center, an adjunct professor at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, and a member of the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book "China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know" was published by Oxford University Press in April 2016.
Comments
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Unfortunately January 20, 2017 is coming. Now China is on the slippery slope, their stock is shot, millions of tons of material their trying to dump for less then it cost to manufacture, workers aren't getting paid. They build and build condos, malls, buildings and no one to buy or occupy the property. That's a fact
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Good insight Arthur, really got me thinking about those dank issues. Wouldn't mind if you were wearing a little less clothing, gotta let those biceps breathe dawg 😘
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Excellent speaker with a clear view of China's bright future and past achievements. Quite refreshing to listen to a realist for a change rather than the common rubbish you hear from the China bears.
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China different from Japan in the population. 50% population are still farmers. They are still trying to get modernization, that is the driving force behind the “moving force” that is different from developed country like Japan.
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You miss the point,it is all about CPC leadership to became if not the largest economy of the world,the country is already have a strong foundation for economic growth,just waiting for the right signal to go ahead,the mao model did not work for great leaf forward,but then the Deng model took off.It won't like the next Japan because it is different set of circumstances however some will still read your book for thought provocation
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