Bankers fear the impact of a US recession on European economy

SHOTLIST 1. Wide of Frankfurt skyline 2. Euro sign in front of European Central Bank tower 3. Street in central Frankfurt 4. Tilt up of Commerzbank tower 5. Wide of Deutsche Bank towers 6. Close up of Deutsche bank sign 7. Bull and Bear in front of Frankfurt Stock Exchange 8. Wide interior of trading floor 9. Mid of traders 10. Wide of trading floor 14. Close up of Dax curve on the screen 15. Mid of Timo Klein, Senior Economist at Global Insight Germany walking through his offices 16. SOUNDBITE (English) Timo Klein Senior Economist Global Insight Germany: "Europe will definitely also be affected by a recession in the U.S at least more than we would have thought one or two months ago. It obviously depends on how such a recession would occur in the U.S. At the moment we are expecting the U.S to touch negative growth rates in the first and perhaps also the second quarter of this year and in Europe this will at least lead to a slow down by another few tenths of a per cent. Now, Europe has the advantage of having a reasonably robust domestic economy now, this is different from a few years ago, and especially for a country like Germany where there is a lot of exports to emerging markets to China where there are also structural reasons for good growth. That does support and to a certain extend can shield Europe from the impact of a U.S recession but it will not pass by with little trace that is certainly not the case." 17. Close up of Global Insight sign 18. SOUNDBITE (English) Timo Klein Senior Economist Global Insight Germany: "The new programme planed by the Bush administration now will certainly help if it comes in a timely fashion if it takes 6 months or more until this goes through Congress than it will probably be too late to have much of an impact but the U.S has already shown the last times there was a similar support programme that it can act fairly rapidly sending tax cheques basically to consumers and so this could have a bolstering impact, but I would say its not as important as the Fed eases monetary policy further this can happen of course even quicker and will have more of an effect." 19. Close up of trader looking at his computer 20. Various of a trading floor at Frankfurt stock exchange STORYLINE: The outlook for the global economy this year is looking decidedly dour, and bankers in Germany were on Wednesday assessing the impact that an economic recession in the US could have on Europe. It's been a turbulent week on the global markets as fears of a U.S. recession, have impacted on stock prices around the world. For Europe the recent activity on the markets could imply a bumpy year ahead, but despite the saying that "if the U.S. economy sneezes, the world gets sick," some believe the impact on Europe's biggest economies such as Germany, France and Britain may not be as great as first thought. Timo Klein, a senior Economist at Global Insight Germany in Frankfurt said that the effect of a US recession on Europe depends on growth rates over the coming few months. "At the moment we are expecting the U.S to touch negative growth rates in the first and perhaps also the second quarter of this year and in Europe this will at least lead to a slow down by another few tenth of a per cent," he told AP Television. According to Klein, European economies should be strong enough to stave of some of the impact of a downturn in the US. ''Europe has the advantage of having a reasonably robust domestic economy now, this is different from a few years ago, and especially for a country like Germany where there is a lot of exports to emerging markets to China where there are also structural reasons for good growth,'' Klein said. But European markets were down by midday. You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/youtube/64492ea9e11a175d2c889c5d7bca9cd0 Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork