CHINA’S ECONOMY: POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

AND STRATEGIES FOR RUSSIA China has entered into an economic slowdown stage: in 2015, its GDP grew by only 7% - its lowest rate of growth in 25 years. China’s authorities speak about the country's transition to a "new normality" and promise to change the growth pattern and institute structural reforms. Naysayers believe that China will have a rough landing, and that last year’s collapse of stock exchanges may lead to a full-scale debt crisis. Will Beijing be able to meet the challenges? And what should be the strategy for Russia in seeking to turn to Asia and gain a foothold in Chinese markets? Topics for Discussion 1) What are the structural causes and long-term implications of China’s slowdown? To what extent is the Government controlling the debt problem? 2) How are the transition to a new growth model and the implementation of structural reforms proceeding? 3) how will the establishment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership affect the growth rate in China? 4) What industrial markets of China will be interesting for Russian players in the new conditions? 5) Does Russia have a chance to attract capital leaving China? Moderator Alexander Gabuev, Senior Associate and Chair, Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program, Carnegie Moscow Center Participants Valery Golubev, Deputy Chairman, Management Board, Gazprom Denis Kamyshev, First Vice President for International Development, Gazprombank Andrey Klepach, Deputy Chairman of the Board and Chief Economist, Vnesheconombank Vladimir Markov, Member of the Board, Department Head, PJSC Gazprom Justin Yifu Lin, Professor and Honorary Dean, National School of Development, Peking University; Chief Economist of the World Bank (2008-2012) Michael Pettis, Senior Associate, the Carnegie Asia Program, Beijing; Professor, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University Andrei Slepnev, Minister of Trade, Eurasian Economic Commission Natalia Stapran, Director, Russian APEC Study Center, RANEPA Stanislav Voskresensky, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation www.ranepa.com