Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis
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The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But Didier Sornette and his Financial Crisis Observatory have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes (or less). Look for talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and much more. Find closed captions and translated subtitles in many languages at http://www.ted.com/translate Follow TED news on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/tednews Like TED on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TED Subscribe to our channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/TEDtalksDirector
Comments
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Ask Rockefeller family, they are planing those ahead
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Sustained growth. How? First of all, without democracy a few tend to take it all. With corporate capitalism, the ultimate goal is to take more than is given. That's called profit. With the increased efficiency of profit maximization, those in control make the decision when to water the garden, how much to water the garden and if to apply fertilizer, how often or when? With greed and no checks and balances, those in control of the economic garden, kill it. To this day in spite of his back peddling rambles soon after the economic downturn, Alan Greenspan has not learned one damn thing. There are too many more just like him.
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Didier Sornette is a professor from ETH Zurich, one of the best universities in Europe.
All those dislikes because the cowards/sheeple can't handle the truth xD -
Interesting talk but very hard to follow the strong accent.
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babon?
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Trying to analyze the 07 08 crisis by looking at stocks is incoherent. It was in extremely complicated derivatives and the perverse incentives surrounding the speculative frenzy in those illiquid markets.
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This is another out-of-touch academic selling us theories that do not have solid real life experiment. Myself as a scientist/engineer always rely on tests to confirm any analysis even though past analytical results were confirmed by experiment. The problem with these predictions are many parameters interact nonlinearly and you never know when and how a crash would occur. for example Hurricane prediction and modeling is based on allot of measurements, past history and nonlinear dynamics. You can see it is coming but not accurately know where it is going to hit and what time it will hit. The financial market is random event which is heavily influenced by consumer psychology, government policies and a host of other unpredictable factors. I guess Professor Didier should invest all his assets in the financial market since he can predict the outcome. He will be extremely rich !!!
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It has been a year since this guy bragged about his predictions. He said the Nasdaq was in a bubble in May of 2013. It was around 3530 at that point. It is currently at 4300.
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He sounds ridiculous. Learn to pronounce BUBBLE.
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promises more than he delivers
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13:38 - Why does the graph of the Chinese bubble stop at 2009? This talk was in 2013 and data is pretty easy to get. That makes me suspicious that this is a bit of a curve-fitting exercise. Though he does say this is 'just the third or fourth act' so maybe the financial bubble indeed goes in pockets of predictability. These so-called non-linear transitions are interesting. I still have Sornette's book on stock market crashes and power laws, it motivated me to take up finance in the first place.
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at time 9:29 no index (readable) of left side of graph....what...trillions of USD? also I came here to see a circuit diagram of the hardware he uses.....where is that?
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Slow down Pepe Le Pew... its all scare tactics. Nothing is going happen. It amazes me that all this talk about crap but CRAP never changes. Same thing day after day.... no changes other than the amount of money they will slowly drain for the world population until we are all taxed 100% and giving only what the world governments think we need to live. Oh, and don't forget they will do everything to divide us all and keep CRAP going. Its a promise.
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He said that the dragon king should eat the black swan, but the definition is of a black swan is that it is unpredictable, unlike the dragon king. How can one predict the fact that the Greece played around with the numbers?
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Seems to say nothing but the obvious with a spin for "order by government and specialists". Save your time.
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Awesome talk! Reminds me of Hari Seldons Psychhystorie. :)
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Yes.
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Did you?
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Is this a joke? I'm only 30 seconds in...who the hell was calling '86 to '07 stable?? You can even see in the employment chart the fallout from Black Monday and the other major crashes around the Gulf war. I thought it was common knowledge that major financial markets crash on an average 7 - 11 year cycle anyway?
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you're thinking too short term my friend
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