Dr Geoff Bertram (Institute of Policy Studies) at Do Something: Credit Crunched NZ

Dr Bertram set the scene by providing a brief macro-economic overview, with some comparisons to the Great depression and an analysis of the pattern of recessions throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries. The data suggest that it is still too early to call whether we are in recovery from the present global recession, and some indicators remain weak. Consumption and world trade are still down significantly, and the pattern of the present recession is deeper than anything experienced since the depression, with no turning point towards improvement in fundamentals as yet. A second layer of effect is the radical restructuring of the world economy, with enormous surpluses in some countries most notably China, and huge deficits in a number of the Western economies, most notably the USA. This imbalance is not sustainable, particularly when the deficits have been incurred to fuel consumption rather than investment. The third layer of effect is at the level of the individual, where the labour market remains key to peoples prospects particularly for those who have limited skills or training. The appetite for borrowing and spending which we observed during the decade or so preceding the present recession has since diminished markedly, as people chose to reduce debt and prepare themselves for more uncertain times. An unfortunate offshoot from this change is that many people are likely to become less caring for and generous towards one another. In summary, the world outlook remains fragile and uncertain, and this is like to mean continuing if not worsening circumstances for the most vulnerable in our society for some time yet. http://dosomething.org.nz