Economic Forecasting: How to Predict the Future
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http://www.patrickschwerdtfeger.com/sbi/ Patrick Schwerdtfeger discusses the impact of demographics on future economic growth for countries around the world including America, Latin America, Europe, Russia, China, Japan, India, Pakistan and the Middle East and North Africa. In particular, he looks at population growth, the age profile and net exports as a way to predict expected economic growth between 2010 and 2050. This type of analysis is extremely valuable for people interested in international business. Their interest might be motivated by business interests, international investment objectives or thought leadership around the world. Regardless how you use this information, it will allow you to literally predict the future for the economic performance of countries all around the world. Patrick Schwerdtfeger is a leading authority on global business trends, and the author of the award-winning book, Marketing Shortcuts for the Self-Employed (2011, Wiley). He is a regular speaker for Bloomberg TV and has spoken about business trends, small business marketing and the social media revolution at conferences and business events around the world. Patrick's past books include Webify Your Business: Internet Marketing Secrets for the Self-Employed (2009) and Make Yourself Useful: Marketing in the 21st Century (2008). He has been featured by the New York Times, LA Times, San Francisco Chronicle, CNN Money, Inc. Magazine, Fortune, Bloomberg Businessweek, the Associated Press, MONEY Magazine and Forbes, among others.
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Population growth isnt always good what about the low cost of production the produces unenployment and the huge trend that no hand work is needed, who will pay for those people, goverment debt is increasing and default is in the corner . Happy to hear reply. Best, from argentina. Juan
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You haven't mentioned anything about CANADA.
This country seems to promote lot of immigration currently and in near future, what do you think about the growth as i believe they have lot of natural resources which needs to be tapped out.
I like the speech and i will be watching all your videos, it was informative......Thank you -
u r wrong just know the muslim fertilty in in dia and pakistan 8 children r u kidding me
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I feel like your too optimistic about the Middle East . They face a fundamental hurdle in economic growth . Most Middle East country do not believe In western style banking such as interest and loans. With oil being phased out of the west . I see them being falling back into economic hardship .Though I have not studied Islamic banking closely I assume it would be very difficult for your average Mohamed to ask for a no interest loan to start a convenience store. What is the incentive for them to loan money .
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Baku is the capital of Azerbaijan. maybe during Former Soviet Union, Azerbaijan is one of the greatest oil supplier of Russia. But now Azerbaijan, more precisely Baku, extract just 50 million barrels crude oil in comparison 450 million barrels of Russia. Additionally, Oil extracted in Baku mainly is transmitting across Turkey and Georgia, not Russia.
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I really loved your channel Mrnes :) great
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Don't worry about us in Europe, now we have got a huge manpower import. oh wait...
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Thankyou!'
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BULL Chinas population is shrinking because they are coming here
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This analysis can be measurably improved by including an examination of the concentration of ownership of land in any society. Adam Smith was one of the first political economists to explain how land markets act as a main driver of how societies function as producers of goods and services and how the value of what is produced is distributed back to the population. He warned that a low effective rate of taxation imposed on land would lead to the creation (as had already occurred in Britain and other societies of Europe and Asia) of a "rentier" elite. Rentiers are those who by virtue of owning and controlling access to nature are able to claim what others produce while producing nothing in exchange.
The concentration of ownership of land and natural resources around the world has accelerated over the last three decades. The impact on the U.S. and other societies of this trend is going to result in greater and greater poverty until the way governments raise revenue is dramatically changed. -
this is a pretty simplistic explanation of the world.
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political instability is not due age of the population but due to the political situation in different regions!!!!.....china's per capita disposable income is increasing and there will be a time when they will start asking for democracy and freedom....so they are going to be hit a major bump and i m not sure if they can survive that....you did not talk about the political unstability in china...whereas india is a stable democracy......and i also disagree with the point that china is smart and savvy....they do no value addition to there exports...the only reason y companies go to china for manufacturing is not because of the technology but because they have cheap labour(which they can exploit as much as they want) and also good infrastructure....and the massive trade surplus they have has inflated there foreign reserve to an extent that they now completely depend on the american economy any kind of recession in america will completely destroy the chinese economy......
you may have heard the rabbit and tortoise story...well in this case china is the rabbit and india is the tortoise.....india is relatively less dependent on developed countries and it now also has political stability(look at the recent election results).....
even citibank believes that INDIA will be the worlds largest economy by 2050.... -
You look like an Abercrombie!.!. #Hottie Lol!.!.
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Your economic predictions are most certainly correct debarring unforeseen calamities but these predictions are the stuff of nightmares. One thinks that Western countries will have to sort out the problem of the youth deficit and the large number of older people and simply work out solutions around this problem without using massive immigration. After all immigrants will grow old one day. Then the problem will arise again and again and again.
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India's population to grow by 38% and this is good, are you insane!
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This economic half wits who predict future economic trends based on yesterdays behaviours is like driving a car and steering using the rear view mirror as a guide.
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Wait you know when you said europe will struggle to have ecenomic growth because of older age and population decrease well the UK is going to grow by 10 million plus people in 20-25 years or so and theres alot of young people without jobs so we have a youth problem its something like people the age of 16-25 cant find work I thought you said if the population is increasing and their are alot of young people then the ecenomy of the UK should grow more than most europian countries im not sure
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you forgot austalia nd the far east
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One of the best videos I've ever watched on world's economic forecasting! Simply brilliant, mate! I just started my Masters in Business Economics last month, so hopefully watching your video at this early stage gonna play a vital role understanding world's future economy!! Thanks a trillion!!!
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Thank you, Makarand. I'm thrilled you enjoyed it. More on the way!
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