Experts gather to give downbeat assesment of global economy

SHOTLIST 1. Wide of Villa D''Este, tilt-down to Ambrosetti Forum guests reading financial newspapers whilst sitting at tables on terrace in front of Lake Como 2. Ambrosetti Forum guests reading financial newspapers 3. Financial Times headline reading (English) "Hopes for global recovery take a hit" 4. Professor Mario Monti, former EU commissioner and Bocconi University President, arriving 5. Various interiors of Ambrosetti Forum 6. Conference guests including former Arab League Secretary General and Egyptian presidential candidate, Amr Moussa (right) 7. Wide of Nouriel Roubini, New York University Professor of Economics, addressing conference 8. SOUNDBITE: (English) Nouriel Roubini, New York University Professor of Economics: "My economic outlook is quite bearish, in the sense that my view is that there is more than a 50 per cent probability that by next year we are going to have a recession in many of the advanced economies. I do not expect a global recession, I do not expect a recession in fast growing emerging markets, but the economic data from the United States, from most of the Eurozone, and from the United Kingdom suggest that we may have an economic contraction." 9. Policemen outside conference venue 10. Former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar being interviewed 11. SOUNDBITE: (English) Jose Maria Aznar, former Spanish Prime Minister: "I believe that we need to recover trust, trust in American policy, trust in European policies, this is the key question. And I don''t believe that the current American administration and the current European institutions manage the situation with the level of the decision to produce this trust." 12. Set-Microsoft Italia chief executive officer Pietro Scott Jovane walking 13. SOUNDBITE: (English) Pietro Scott Jovane, Microsoft Italia chief executive officer: "This sort of global slowdown is actually quickly shifting, shall we say GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth from the countries we are in to the countries which are developing, so the world is going to be different after this further slowdown for sure." 14. Carabinieri (police) lake patrol 15. Wide of Villa D''Este on Lake Como STORY LINE Business leaders and finance experts gathered in Italy offered a downbeat assessment of the global economy on Friday, with several predicting a renewed recession due to a calamitous cocktail of sluggish rich-world economies, Eurozone dysfunction, and markets made volatile by shock waves from the Japanese tsunami, the Arab Spring and the downgrading of US debt. New York University economist Nouriel Roubini struck a pessimistic tone in opening remarks which lived up to his nickname of "Dr. Doom", earned after forecasting the disaster several years before the 2008 crash, even as many of his colleagues revelled in the boom times. On this occasion Roubini seemed to reflect prevailing sentiment at the annual Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of a Lake Como. "My view is that there is more than a 50 per cent probability that by next year we are going to have a recession in many of the advanced economies," Roubini said. "I do not expect a global recession, I do not expect a recession in fast growing emerging markets, but the economic data from the United States, from most of the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom suggest that we may have an economic contraction," he added. Former Spanish Premier Jose Maria Aznar expressed concern with the way the United States and Europe are handling the economic malaise. "We need to recover trust, trust in American policy, trust in European policies, this is the key question," Aznar said. Microsoft Italia Chief Executive Officer, Pietro Scott Jovane, believes the growth of emerging markets will continue to outstrip developed economies. You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/youtube/c2e800e9c2ed737e9ae9576e537ab0b6 Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork