George Friedman: Saudi Arabia Is Running Out of Time
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Grab the free report "Saudi Arabia—a Failing Kingdom" from John Mauldin and George Friedman (http://www.mauldineconomics.com/landi...), which is a must read for every investor who wants to protect their assets… and profit from what happens next. --- Geopolitical expert George Friedman says low oil prices could destabilize and possible topple Saudi Arabia’s ruling family long before it runs out of money. The result could radically change the once-dependable Middle East political order, with major implications for the entire world. Speaking in a Mauldin Economics interview, Friedman says oil isn’t just important to the Saudi economy; oil is the Saudi economy. The Kingdom has no other reason to exist in its current form. Saudi Arabia prospered at $100 oil, was satisfied with $50 oil, but is in deep trouble with $30 oil. Low oil prices make it impossible for the Saudis to keep all their commitments. At current prices, they can’t balance their government budget and can’t sustain payments to the vast royal family which forms the core of Saudi society. Friedman agrees the Saudis have enough cash reserves to probably last 3–4 years, depending how much they cut spending and what oil prices do, but money is not the real constraint. The House of Saud has many enemies both within and outside its borders. If the perception takes hold that oil prices are at a permanently lower range, it will embolden these enemies to act against the regime. Whether the Saudis actually are running out of money isn’t the decisive factor. If opponents come to believe the current order has an expiration date, they will act against it immediately. Saudi Arabia is entering this danger zone at a particularly difficult time. Iraq and Syria effectively don’t exist as separate nations, leaving the Middle Eastern heartland in chaos. Enemies can exploit the chaos to strike against the Saudi regime. Iran and Turkey are both potential rivals for regional domination. Saudi instability could also draw in outside powers, notably Russia and the United States, as the formerly stable region becomes unstable. Most terrifying of all, a Saudi collapse could embolden ISIS and other jihadist groups to seize control of even more territory and possible capture oil fields and energy infrastructure. If that happens, it would be a game changer for the entire world’s economy. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Comments
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Nobody will miss this terrorist state. The criminal Saudis also corrupted American politics. The sooner they go down the better!
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Not good for someone living in KSA. I hope I'm long gone by the time the whole thing unravels!
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Saudi Arabia is finished.
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Friedman is a pseudo intellectual of no significance whatever.
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what if saudi's downfall was planned to soften the US's transition from fossil fuels to other sources of energy ( maybe lithium based batteries ), oil prices are now low ( so is demand ) and the western world is moving faster towards green energy or saudi's economical troubles could be the result of US manipulation to buy more weapons ( to boast the military industrial complex ) and to try to keep iran at bay with low oil prices specially after the nuclear deal, i guess as usual we'll have to wait and see but either way the US is on the winning side
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total bullsht, saudis print fiat money just like USA
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this is assuming oil wont shoot back up to around 80$
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George is commenting all the worlds political situation, but not US :) maybe EU is messed up, but I wouldn't say US aren't. Wouldn't say at all.
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rockefeller owns saudi arabia´s oil, saudi arabia is a protectorate of US, talk to rockefeller
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Hi gentleman, I found a video of ISIS talking about boundaries, in Iraq etc
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Here if anyone wants to know Who Funds the Top Terrorists around the world...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesinternational/2014/12/12/the-worlds-10-richest-terrorist-organizations/#594a70cb2ffa -
The West need to let us live our life. stope interfering in the kingdom. Every single saudi is loyal to the royal family and the West know it. we live a luxury life, the government take care of us from health, education, social security to every aspect. The kingdom didn't invade Iraq or Afganistan the west did. wake up.
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Well, the US protects the oil over there, they need to build a big area 51 type fence or yes, a wall, or some way to protect, or better yet, get the US onto green energy NOW! We have waited long enough. What is wrong with wind, solar, geothermal, even building homes that use the deeper ground temp to pipe in cooler air from below the surface. These eco homes are really cool tech.
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Don't forget, the English have a royal family, paid by the government and tax payers. Think about it, English Queen, English King, Royal family. There is also a genetic based tribe in Israel. The Israeli regime is subsidized by American tax payers, based on royal blood and being Creator God's flat Earth, Earth centered Universe, chosen people. Lots of royal blood going around.
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Perhaps the Royal Family needs to tighten its belt.
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Very naive wide predictions statement. This guy knows a little about how inner working of the Saudi gov works, not to mention the dynamics between Saudis and their rulers.
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fucking zionist
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Saudi Arabia is allready a Jihadist regime they're the main sponser of international Jihad so if the Saudis Go the funding goes.
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Dr. Friedman this is just over simplification. Saudi Arabia was built upon the original salafi version of Islam, unmodified, in which the OBEDIENCE of the ruler, whoever he is, is CRITICAL to the state of the muslim community. As a muslim you are REQUIRED to obey your ruler even if you don't like him, don't like his deeds, his religion or him being unjust to you. The obedience of the ruler is of the obedience of Allah. The concepts of freedom, liberty and populous democracy do not exist in Islam.
Koran 4:59 "O ye who believe! Obey Allah, and obey the Messenger, and those charged with authority among you. If ye differ in anything among yourselves, refer it to Allah and His Messenger, if ye do believe in Allah and the Last Day: That is best, and most suitable for final determination"
This is a MAJOR part of the Sunni creed. This is why Qaeda and ISIS could not find popular support in Saudi Arabia. This is also why there were no protests and rallies in Saudi Arabia during the Arab Spring (not because of security crackdowns...etc.).
Furthermore, there are no powerful, influential hardliner "orthodox" scholar community that the Saudi family are trying to accommidate. They simply exist in the imagination of Westerners (Doubtful? Name them!). The rulers of Saudi Arabia just promote the salafi orthodox creed, delivered to the populus by weak, sincere scholars to establish their (Saudi) authority.
Give us some credit. We are not as dumb or stupid as the west wants to think we are. Ask yourself if you are so smart: who killed tens of millions of people in the last century? And who is facing social, and moral degradation and unprecedented demographic extension within the next century? It's the West.
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