good, bad and ugly scenarios for the global economy - part 2 - 'ugly'

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1. Love your videos... Just curious about where you think we are now in your 3 scenarios?
2. You say that in the ugly scenario, fiscal stimulus packages are viewed as failures; so since they failed to stimulate the economy, there is no inflation?
3. @victorjonsson I bought gold sovereigns (each about 1 quarter ounce) at a gold dealing desk at national bank of greece in athens. Most cities have dealers. Expect a 15% or so spread on buy/sell prices. You can buy bars but sovereigns are better as they are divisible and larger bars can be tampered with (internal drilling and substitution of gold for other material). My coins have risen 26% in last 9 months (35% annualised) but I think the real purpose to holding gold is as an inflation hedge.
4. @pajholden Where do you reccomend one to buy gold?
5. @angeldream00 I think thats thier ultimate goal but I believe that won't happen anytime soon. We will get a new reserve currency but I don't think it will be a one world currency. 
6. The plan is a new world government with a one world currency, do you think this could be ever possible?
7. House prices are the key to getting to the bottom of all this, yet the importance of this indicator is continually ignored by the economics profession. The boom in mortgage debt crippled the economies of the world, personal indebtedness went through the roof and as a result demand was drained from the economy. This put strain on banks balance sheets which has led to all sorts of weird and wonderful 'solutions'. House prices need to be kept low which stops the risk building up.
8. Me too. That's why I bought gold.
9. I believe we are going to have a stag hyperinflation in the US sometime next year or earlier wich will have commodity prices go skyhigh. US will lose its reserve currency off the world (The Dollar) and a new reserve currency will be born.
10. @sexdrugsRnR Lol
11. Interesting. The reference to natural disasters was maybe a little over the top. I didn't see any mention of inflation. When people lose confidence in their currency the value of that currency will drop like a stone. There may be no avoiding the extreme reactions you mention; and bankers are currently asking for trouble by snubbing their noses at government attempts to curb their excesses
12. the ugly looks good.
13. I think the ugly scenario is likely. Some economists say we've dodged the collapse and we're now recovering, but that's BS. I'm making a series arguing that nearly all the growth in the American economy over the last 30 years has been a bubble and it's getting ready to burst. The correction will be severe and we'll see many of the "ugly" components you describe.
14. same as! good luck!
15. id just like to say i have my ECN 5 and ECN 6 aqa exam on friday and videos like this are so useful, this is going to help me loads!
16. Anarchy would be jokes, but im an optimistic economists so personally im seeing us in the slot between 'good' and 'bad' with it like 60% towards good. i definitely cant see the ugly happening. But great video though.
17. i think it will be uglier than ugly !!
18. Re: No credit available... This is what occurred right after the Lehman brothers failure. Banks quit issuing Letters of Credit to shippers and it almost paralyzed world trade in just a couple weeks. That is why Paulson threatened Congress with total civil unrest and martial law. He knew if they didnt reinflate the insolvent bank's balance sheets the entire world economy would shortly stop completely. ex: your grocery store doors would be locked from lack of products to sell. no crude for refi
19. H, Thanks, my guess is things will get worse in some countries and others will emerge. Things will get bad here in Greece, and broadly I see a shift to emerging economies, medium term. Longer term we are all screwed of course. Commodities will be sufficiently rare that we will have to live very different lives. Thanks for your kind words.
20. Hi Phil, another excellent vid. Watched on the same day that Chrysler filed for bankruptcy! Do you think, in a global context, that we have seen the worst of the financial crisis or do you think we have more to come? When do you think things will get back to some semblance of normality?