IMF releases world economic outlook; sot on Latam

SHOTLIST 1. Wide shot of International Monetary Fund (IMF) panel 2. Cutaway of media 3. SOUNDBITE (English) Olivier Blanchard, Director of the Research Department of the IMF "Overall we expect the global economy to decline by 1.3 percent in 2009. This is year on year. The weakest performance, by far, of the whole post war period. Growth would return in 2010, helped by strong policies, but would remain just under 2 percent, so still well below what we would see as a normal growth rate for the average for the year." 4. Cutaway of reporters 5. SOUNDBITE (English) Charles Collyns, Deputy Director of the Research Department of the IMF "There was a very sharp contraction of the US economy in the fourth quarter of last year as probably a further significant contraction in the first quarter but there are signs that at least that rate of contraction is now starting to moderate. Consumer demand has been a little bit stronger, so we're expecting growth in consumption in part because of the decline in petroleum prices, in part because of adjustment in social security at the beginning of the year. There's also been some improvement in business confidence, some signs of bottoming out in housing markets but these are very early days. We should not expect a return to growth anytime soon." 6. Cutaway of media 7. SOUNDBITE (English) J�rg Decressin, Chief of the World Economic Outlook Studies Division of the IMF "Germany has already deployed a lot of fiscal stimulus. Basically, the German government deficit went from balance in 2008 to a deficit of around 5 percent in 2009 so this is significant support to the economy. And the deficit is expected to widen further to around 6 percent in 2010. Now, could they do more? The answer is yes. Germany does have the room to do more. Should they do more at this stage? I think, our view is that they should definitely consider doing so. They should have measures ready to roll out, especially when downside risks materialise. 8. Cutaway of media 9. SOUNDBITE (English) Charles Collyns, Deputy Director of the Research Department of the IMF "Brazil like other countries in Latin America is suffering from a combination of shocks; the sharp decline in commodity prices, for the products that Brazil exports, tightening in financial conditions, and the global slow down in trade. This had a fairly major impact on the Brazilian economy in the fourth quarter. We do see some signs of improvement in the first quarter, in part because the Brazilian authorities are using macro-economic policies actively to respond to this shock." 10. Wide shot of IMF panel STORYLINE The International Monetary Fund projected a 1.3 percent drop in the world's economy in a dour forecast released on Wednesday. That could leave at least 10 (m) million more people around the world jobless, some private economists said. This is the "weakest performance, by far, of the whole post war period," said the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook. The new forecast of a decline in global economic activity for 2009 is much weaker than the 0.5 percent growth the IMF had estimated in January. Big factors in the gloomier outlook: it's expected to take longer than previously thought to stabilise world financial markets and get credit flowing freely again to consumers and businesses. Doing so will be necessary to lift the US, and the global economy, out of recession. The IMF's outlook for the US is bleaker than for the world as a whole. It predicts the US economy will shrink 2.8 percent this year. That would mark the biggest such decline since 1946. Those resources have, for example, allowed Brazil to offer tax breaks and emergency credit lines to exporters to ease liquidity and support growth. You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/youtube/9bf9babe9221b13860e6a5dccec2ba2d Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork