IMF says world economic outlook positive

1. Wide IMF briefing 2. SOUNDBITE: (English) Kenneth Rogoff, IMF chief economist: "For 2001 it was a very close call. We decided that the outcome was just slightly above what we could officially declare a global recession. We acknowledge that it's somewhat a matter of semantics whether one wants to call the recent downturn, the 'most severe downturn that wasn't a recession', or 'the mildest global recession on record'- it's a close call. The National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States, as you know, decided to call the US downturn a recession. In truth, looking back, the US downturn probably does qualify as an employment growth recession, but it probably falls somewhat short of a fully-fledged output growth recession " 3. Cutaway press 4. SOUNDBITE: (English) Kenneth Rogoff, IMF chief economist: "Well, the outlook is positive but there are several areas of vulnerability. First and foremost I want to emphasize global imbalances which really had begun accumulating in the 1990's but didn't get any better during the recent recession. One significant area is the United States current account which still remains in the range of 4 per cent deficit of GDP and has been there for a while. This is of course a global problem. It's all world saving and investment behaviour, not simply what happens in the United States " 5. Cutaway press 6. SOUNDBITE: (English) Kenneth Rogoff, IMF chief economist: "A second risk is the high level of corporate and consumer debt and high equity prices which if the growth does not materialize and a sufficiently rapid rate could prove to be a problem. A third risk we identify is Japan which is mired in its third recession in a decade." 7. Cutaway briefing 8. SOUNDBITE: (English) Kenneth Rogoff, IMF chief economist: "A fourth risk I want to emphasize and it's difficult to quantify this really, has to do with non- economic events- something having to do with, say, a repeat of September 11th. 9. Cutaway press " The issue may come into your mind about oil prices. The projections we have here which have oil at 23 dollars a barrel average in 2002, and 22 dollars average in 2003 are roughly consistent with current market prices and future prices. However a sharp spike in oil prices would indeed have a significant impact on the global economy." 10. Wide briefing STORYLINE: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the world economy is set to rebound this year after the sharp downturn in 2001, the weakest year in a decade. That rebound will be led, it says, to a stronger-than-expected recovery in the US. I-M-F officials in Washington D-C issued their latest World Economic outlook on Thursday, suggesting there are a variety of reasons to be more optimistic about growth this year and in 2003. I-M-F chief economist Kenneth Rogoff told reporters at a briefing that the global economy is expected to grow at another 0-point-4 percentage point beyond the 2-point-4 percent growth projection of last December. But he also outlined threats that could derail the recovery, ranging from rising tensions in the Middle East to a surge in global oil prices and an ongoing recession in Japan. You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/youtube/c0888ef59dba1834dcbd1257f10a06a2 Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork