In 2025, the Center of the Global Economy Will Be Back Where it Was in 1 AD
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What will the global economy look like in 2025? Dr. James Manyika runs through several likely shifts from our current situation, led by the undeniable rise of East Asia. Dr. Manyika's latest book is "No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends" (http://goo.gl/N15UiO). Read more at BigThink.com: http://bigthink.com/videos/james-manyika-on-the-rise-of-emerging-markets Follow Big Think here: YouTube: http://goo.gl/CPTsV5 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BigThinkdotcom Twitter: https://twitter.com/bigthink Transcript - The center of gravity of the global economy is actually shifting east and south to some extent. In fact what’s interesting about that is that if you actually tried to do a center of gravity analysis you’ll actually find that the center of gravity of the global economy by 2025 will actually be somewhere in East Asia is where it will be. And what’s interesting about that is that that’s where it was in about year 1 A.D. So in fact in some ways it’s a return back to where the center of gravity used to be. So you’ve got that big geographic shift happening. Associated with that same geographic shift is actually another shift which is in some ways even more interesting which is the rise in importance of cities and urbanization. I think for the first time we’re going to see the majority of humanity live in cities in ways that are way more profound than we’ve ever seen before. In fact if you actually look at the global economy through the lens of cities you see a few different things. One you see that, for example, between now and the year 2025 something like two-thirds of the global economy and the growth of the global economy is going to be led by about 600 cities. And that’s a very finite number. I mean 600 cities in the grand scheme of things is not a very large number. And of those 600 cities something like 440 of them are actually in emerging countries. Most people haven’t heard of cities like Komatsu, Tianjin, Honshu. So there’s a lot of cities on that list in the global economy that are quite extraordinary. And by the way this rise in urbanization is interesting because, you know, we’ve actually been adding something the equivalent of if you like six Chicagos every year to the global economy, to just the sheer scale of this urbanization trend. We know that people are wealthier on average when they move into cities. We know that cities as economic engines are actually more productive because of that density. We also know now as a result also of other things like technology that some of the most interesting innovations and business models and models are actually happening inside cities. So it’s no surprise that the vast majority of some of the trends we’re seeing whether it’s the Ubers or the Airbnbs and all these kinds of new interesting models all happen in dense urban environments. So cities are actually very interesting places and I think we haven’t thought enough about them as sort of engines of economic growth and performance.
Comments
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China and the Indian subcontinent have always had the largest populations throughout history so it makes sense that for most of history those two areas have had the largest economies. For a short blip in history the west has had the largest economy because of technology, but things are returning to their natural state. China and India will eclipse the west, and it makes sense because more people equals more economic activity.
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and the whole world would be rule by communist
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"In 2025, the Center of the Global Economy Will Be Back Where it Was in 1 AD"
That's the most positive outlook on Rome's economy I've seen. -
There was no global economy or even "just" a economy in 1 AD. Center of the Global Economy Will Be back Where it Was created, that means Europe where it is now.
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It has been "proven" in a study, that profitability, or gain in moving to dense populated areas, like New York, Tokyo and the likes, are about 13%. So of course, we will see this in the near future, especially by nations or cultures where this has previously been difficult or impossible. However, we would probably move towards an equilibrium, rather than everyone doing what you are proposing.
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"What good is happiness? It can't buy you money". - Henny Youngman
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I would argue the Mediterranean was the center of the world economy.
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The population of the Roman empire was greater than the population of the chinese Han dynasty in 1 AD. The average roman citizen was also slightly richer than the average chinese citizen.
The roman economy was larger then the chinese. -
Wait. They cut him off. What did he say after that?
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There was no "economic center of gravity" in 1 AD. Rome and Han China balanced of against each other quite well, with arguably tilted ever so slightly in Rome's favor. You should have picked another date, preferably in the Middle Ages, when China truly was ascendant.
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666th like!
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In 2025 economy as we know it will be gone. Trading for self-interest will be history and sharing resources based on intelligence and love is what we'll do. This society as it is today is on it's way down, and you all know it in your hearts but many of us are to afraid to see that, so they go on, pretending as if everything is just fine the way it is.
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So commie pope is indeed a jackass!
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That means 5 Chicago cities worth of jobs leaving the west and flying east for slave like wages. We are being played for fools by corporations and the people who gain those jobs are being cheated as well.
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"Cities Grow Engines" to grow where? How about life quality?
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and again we are told by an expensive expert what really is just common sense
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Cities are the greatest creation of mankind...
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As the Shanghai Index has lost over 30% in less than a month....
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Hyperbolic, hyper-speculative idiocy.
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TPP is the US hedging itself. If you know anything about trading you know exactly what I'm talking about.
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