Nate Silver on the Art and Science of Prediction
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http://www.intelligencesquared.com/events/nate-silver-on-the-art-and-science-of-prediction/ Nate Silver is the 35-year-old data engineer and forecaster with superstar status. He shot to fame in 2008 for correctly predicting the outcome in 49 out of 50 states in the US presidential election. In 2012, when most media pundits and political analysts claimed the US election was "too close to call", Silver trumped them all again, giving Obama a 92% chance of winning. Barack Obama has called him "my rock, my foundation", and Bryan Appleyard in the Sunday Times described him as "our age's Brunel". On April 30th he came to Intelligence Squared to discuss the themes of his latest book, 'The Signal and the Noise'. We hear endlessly about Big Data, but when the quantity of data in our world is increasing by 2.5 quintillion bytes per day how can we find the signal in all the noise, the nugget of information that will help us make sense of it all, or maybe even predict the future? Silver explained how expert forecasters think, and describe what lies behind their success, covering the stock market, the poker table, politics, sports, earthquakes, the weather and disease control. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our forecasts, never has it been more vital to know how to distinguish true insights from the noise of useless data. 'Lord and God of the algorithm!' -- Jon Stewart, Daily Show 'The Galileo of number crunchers' -- The Independent 'A new kind of political superstar' -- The Observer 'A 34-year-old Delphic Oracle' -- The Daily Beast
Comments
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Let's cut to the chase. Only Quantum•Chronograph could have forecast that Sheryl Sandberg's husband, Dave Goldberg born 10/2/67 had a personal "probability wave" of suffering a tragic sports accident at a "New" name location (Nuevo Vallarta), coordinates 20° N, 105° W on May 1, 2015, at age 47.
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I thought he shout to fame through his baseball player value predictions
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I predict mayhem and upheaval..... what does Nate say?
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Dig, I really like reading about Science, Geography, History and Atheism, but can anyone tell me why parents should save their hard earned money to send their children to college,who will graduate into a Secular Nation that have landed men on the moon, but the Nation has turned into the most religious Secular Country in the world, WTF !
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so... how did he do in 2012 election?... and other important events? sorry, the guy has the affect and schtick of a huckster (who maybe just got lucky in 2008).
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Great talk and especially great Q&A. Feels good to be on the intellectual side of youtube.
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My interest ebbed and flowed during this video. Over all I like it.
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balding
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so.....it's ok to be biased as long as you aren't fox news? Weird message.
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hi
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Science alternative? Religion with its 2,000 year old fairy Tale. Telling those loons that science doeswn't work will make them think 'God did it' is right!
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