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NZ in recession GDP fell 0.2% in June qtr After 0.3% in the Q1 First recession in 10 years Then Asian crisis, drought Now Credit crunch, drought Panel 2 Housing, exports drag Govt, infrastructure boost What happens now? Most see Sept qtr fall But rebound in Dec qtr Oct 1 tax cuts High dairy payout Better confidence Panel 3 But Im more pessimistic Credit crunch severe Credit rationing Housing sector slump Kensington Park, Whisper Cove Panel 4 Global housing deleveraging More saving. Less spending Dairy prices dropping fast I see recession into 2009 Structural problems Falling productivity Growth restrained While debts high Leaking our best people