Nouriel Roubini on ten trends in global economy
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The world-renowned expert in the field of Economics and Finance Nouriel Roubini told about ten trends in the global economy after the financial crisis and how they impact on Kazakhstan’s joining top 30 most developed countries of the world at the Transformation Forum of «Samruk-Kazyna» JSC in Astana on October 6, 2014.
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I have just finished an article by professor Mason Gaffney (emeritus, University of California) commenting on the validity of Nouriel Roubini's analysis of the reasons for the 2008 financial and economic crash. Professor Gaffney is one of the few economists in the world who focuses on the operation of land markets and the role of tax policy in creating land markets that are speculation-driven and destined to crash every 18 years. Here is what he writes at the end:
"In summary, we have focused on Nouriel Roubini, who managed to forecast the crash of 2008 without apparently leaning on with works of Henry George or Homer Hoyt. He managed to overcome the scorn of critics who would dismiss him as just a congenital pessimist. He won acceptance in the 'club' of leading and quotable economists, while basing his thinking on observations of history in 'emerging' economies (including Japan). We note with regret that he is better at distinguishing housing from other capital than he is at distinguishing buildings from sites. We have learned from him how to bypass the errors of mainstream economists without relegating himself to the margin of their thoughts. We have learned, I hope, that there may be more for us to learn that will help us advance our own cause."
The cause Professor Gaffney refers to her is the desperate need to convince governments to change the way they raise revenue, to recognize finally that "rents" generated by locational advantage are societally-created and are, therefore, the appropriate and necessary source of public revenue. The implication is to embrace a labor and capital goods basis of private property, which calls for the exemption from taxation of income earned by producing goods and providing services. At the local level of government, all buildings and other property improvements ought to be exempt from the tax base. These are the measures Professor Gaffney sees as essential to creation of a full employment society. -
In the end all nations will be in the 'knowledge sector'. The whole world will be competing who will build the latest hottest cell phone. I know I am being absurd but the problem of a fair distribution of the wealth is a human history long problem and stating that will be a problem that will have to be dealt with later because industries are becoming worker free zones... doesn't deal with the problem. Doesn't even start to deal with the problem. Doesn't even make it sound like much of a problem, just something we will scratch out a plan for before the coffee break tomorrow.
It may not sound like it but I am generally a fan of Nouriel Roubini, even read one of his books. But I find it disturbing that many of these talking heads treat the idea that economies don't really work if the people who live in them (and they need to be the consumers in) are not working... they seem to treat the problem with a 'eh'.
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