USA: IMF DISCUSSES THE IT'S VIEWS ON THE WORLD ECONOMY

English/Nat The International Monetary Fund is reporting significant positive developments in the world economy this year. Issuing its latest World Economic Outlook, the I-M-F insists there are still plenty of threats around. But for the first time since the global financial crisis erupted, it revised its previous growth forecast slightly upward, instead of being forced to admit it had been overly optimistic. Tuesday's outlook raises hopes that the worst may be over for the economic crisis that pushed one-third of the globe into recession. The annual spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank kicks off in the United States' capital Washington D.C. The main focus, the release of the annual report predicting the health of world economies for the rest of the 1999/2000 financial year. IMF forecasters believe the global economy will expand by two-point-three percent this year, just point-one percent higher than a forecast it made four months ago, making this year the weakest since the last global recession in 1991. But looking further into the future, the agency predicts a solid rebound in 2000 with the economy returning to growth of three-point-four percent. SOUNDBITE: (English) "For 1999, this year, I believe the risks are evenly balanced around a forecast of 2.3 percent real output growth for the world economy. For the year 2000, the forecast is for growth to recover to 3.4 percent, there I feel the balance for risks is on the downside of a forecast of 3.4 percent. SUPER CAPTION: Michael Mussa, IMF Chief Economist The positive change reflects stronger growth in countries such as the U-S, Canada, Australia, Korea, Thailand and Malaysia, offsetting somewhat weaker growth in Japan and Latin America. Policy actions and stronger confidence in the financial market in both industrial and emerging market countries also considerably contributed to the downward bias of risks. Something especially apparent in Brazil where a remarkable restoration of confidence has been achieved mostly due to the determined policy actions taken by its central government. SOUNDBITE: (English) "I do not want however, to suggest that the recession ended yesterday or is going to end today or is about to end tomorrow. The first quarter was undoubtedly difficult for Brazil and I think probably the second quarter is again going to be a difficult quarter for the economy. I do believe however, that in the second half of the year we will begin to see fairly clear evidence that the Brazilian economy has stopped contracting and is again beginning to expand." SUPER CAPTION: Michael Mussa, IMF Chief Economist But for that to occur, the IMF warns the world's largest economy, the United States, must slow down over the next year or two to a more sustainable pace to keep inflation pressures at bay. Japan, the second-largest economy, will have to finally exhibit signs of emerging from its worst recession in a half-century. SOUNDBITE: (English) "In Japan the economy appears to be bottoming out and growth next year well above the 0.3 percent in the wheel forecast is certainly possible SUPER CAPTION: Michael Mussa, IMF Chief Economist IMF forecasts also saw threats coming from the current NATO bombing campaign in Yugoslavia, warning of severe disruptions to neighbouring countries in the region. SOUNDBITE: (English) "The fiscal and GDP impact of the Kosovo crisis on the United States and on the Euro area are going to be very small. There are going to be very significant impacts obviously on the closely bordering countries of Albania and Macedonia and much smaller but a significant impacts on other bordering economies Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and so forth. You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/youtube/4fef5e1b1c71e0f5b66d2a18a6b1674b Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork