USA: IMF - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

English/Nat International economic projections for 2000 include economic growth that will eclipse that of any year of the 1990s, according to the International Monetary Fund chief economist. Michael Mussa stated that after the global financial crisis of the late 1990s, the world economy regained its footing in 1999 and will grow this year at the fastest pace in more than a decade. But the I-M-F also cautioned that a sudden plunge in the U-S stock market and a "hard landing" for the American economy is one of the leading risks to its forecast. The International Monetary Fund, which had been forced by the 1997-98 currency crisis to consistently lower its forecasts, said in its opening press conference Wednesday morning that it is now in the pleasant position of boosting its estimates. The renewed projections are largely due to the continued strength of the United States economy. The I-M-F predicted that global output will expand by more than four percent this year, the best showing since 1988. SOUNDBITE: (English) "The picture for global growth is a strong and quite positive one for the year 2000 and we believe beyond. There are, however, important risks going forward. I think not so much for this year, but for the latter part of this year or next year, there are some question marks. Those question marks relate in particular to the anticipated slowdown in the US economy and how that will be brought about." SUPER CAPTION: Michael Mussa, IMF Chief Economist Mussa said despite the positive growth forecast, there are downside risks. He stated that further growth in the United Sates economy could force up interest rates and plunge the United States into a mild recession starting in 2001. The I-M-F also mentioned threats from a sudden plunge in the U-S stock market that would shake consumer confidence and the country's huge and growing trade deficit. SOUNDBITE: (English) "And we think the most important risk scenario is that growth in the short term will be somewhat stronger than we now anticipate, particularly in those countries, and especially in the United States, where the economy is already pretty much at the limits of what it can do in a sustainable way. And if growth is stronger in the short term in those economies, then probably we will need a stronger monetary policy reaction to cool the economy off." SUPER CAPTION: Michael Mussa, IMF Chief Economist The release of the International Monetary Fund's economic outlook marked the start of several days of preliminary events leading to the formal opening of the I-M-F and World Bank's spring meetings this weekend. Washington D-C police and federal law enforcement agencies have stepped up security around the downtown site of the meetings. Anti-globalisation groups, hoping to repeat the success they had in disrupting the World Trade Organisation meetings last year in Seattle, are staging their own events this week including a number of protest rallies. Speaking at a news conference, the World Bank's President said he was confused and upset by the protesters actions. SOUNDBITE: (English) "Of course I am concerned about the noise outside. It would be impossible not to be affected when you operate in an institution where you think that what you're doing is dealing with justice and dealing with poverty, and where you believe that the ten-thousand people who work with you share that view." SUPER CAPTION: World Bank President James Wolfensohn The protest groups are hoping to use human chains and other tactics employed in Seattle to block intersections on Sunday and keep finance ministers from attending the opening I-M-F sessions. SOUNDBITE: SUPER CAPTION: World Bank President James Wolfensohn SOUNDBITE: (English) You can license this story through AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/youtube/d55715df6bcf795306b6e9e9a2cd297a Find out more about AP Archive: http://www.aparchive.com/HowWeWork