Vancouver Housing Bubble Crash How It Will Happen
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The Vancouver housing bubble crash will likely come later in 2016. My best guess is that it will happen concurrently with the US liquidity bubble crash, which would lead the global economy into despair. This housing bubble is not just Vancouver’s problem but a problem for all of Canada, especially its major cities, such as Toronto and Alberta: http://seekingalpha.com/article/39019... This crash parallels that of the US in the 2000s and that of Japan in the 1990s. An influx of money from foreign investment and weak-legged loans will be the catalyst of home prices reaching a “peak,” from which they will decline – quickly. Unemployment due to the weak commodity market will also lead to a domino effect of defaults on mortgages. If you are watching this as the bubble pops, it might be too late for you. But if you’re watching as home prices are still rising, you might have time to hedge your investments or simply get out. This crash will hurt all Canadians and even foreign investors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzJvXsWWe9E #vancouverhousingbubble
Comments
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Does this guy even own any real estate?
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I've always wonder what the definition of "afford" meant to the general public. To me it means a guaranteed (or near dam sure) of paying something off but I don't think the public has that same mentality. I know a lot of people are sucked in to buy because they were fearing of never entering the market which is a really poor decision based on pure logic. I could understand of wages were keeping up with the prices of home but it's starting to see a huge disconnect (especially in Vancouver) and I don't see things ending pretty.
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The 'awakening' is occuring - the Minsky moment is soon. See: https://www.google.ca/trends/explore?date=all&geo=CA&q=housing%20bubble
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What do the banks have to lose? They have very little skin in the game; they'll all be bailed out by CMHC Mortgage Insurance. THIS has been another main driver of the bubble. "Got a pulse? Accepted!"
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just a matter of time now until white illegal trash in stolen native indian lands will have to take their illegal white asses back to Europe! keep up the good work chinese we will all work together (HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA)in order to make it so ridiculously unaffordable for white crooks to live in a land they don't belong in to begin with. 8-):):):):):p:p:p:P:P:p--- - - - - -;0 :('''''''''''
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what if it isn't a bubble
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Damon you have all but completely ignored the most important part of the High Prices of Real Estate in Vancouver - Foreign Buyers! If interest rates rise and many people are forced to sell.. several Foreign investors will be right there to purchase their homes. A greater supply on the market will level or drop prices slightly but not much!
Also, you assume that there will suddenly be desperate home owners that will be forced to sell all at once??? No! This is not the US where the 2/28 ARMs artificially forced mortgage payments to more than double (I'd strongly recommend you read about the US Crash) where home owners had no choice but to sell or default because they could not pay. Most in Canada have 5 year fixed mortgages which will come due at various times over the 5 year period.
Also, US has Non Recourse mortgages - so people could walk away from their house and the banks could not come after them for any more money owning if their house is under water. Canada has Full recourse mortgages - if you default and you owe more than your house is worth.. the bank will come after you for the rest of the money after foreclosing and selling your home.
You have to be very careful when comparing Canada and the US .. especially with respect to when and if foreign buyers will stop investing. Many foreign investors from Asia also do not invest for flipping or speculation, but rather, they invest to park their money.. much like keeping their money in a swiss bank account. -
Very informative video, the only other thing that came up in my mind was the struggles of GenY with having double the national unemployment rate, and how it will negatively affect consumerism. This includes college and university grads who already have high school loans and may end up taking out a mortgage at this time driving themselves into more debt.
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The Chinky Fuckers are in the crosshairs now!!
http://globalnews.ca/news/2738797/feds-considering-luxury-tax-on-foreign-buyers-of-multi-million-dollar-homes/ -
Awesome video, that all makes sense and you tackled it from every angle.
For someone who could afford a home but doesn't want the risk before the bubble bursts, how would you recommend exploiting the upcoming flip in fortunes? Can someone short the market, somehow? -
People are stupid! No one needs to pay crazy prices for anything. We just need to stand together and call bullshit on the people asking these ridiculous prices. REFUSE TO PAY! We don't have to live this way.
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Toronto is not a 'world class', international city. It is a city whose economy is built on a housing bubble, inside of a province whose economy is built on a debt bubble.
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if oil crashes the whole country crashes, it's pretty simple
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The best cure for high prices is high prices. There is a limit to how far people can (or are willing to commute) and still work in the city. Also, Toronto is a phony economy located in one of the most indebted provinces or states. If our economy continues to approach 100% dependence on real estate, it won't take the government too long to connect the dots and institute larger taxes on everything related to housing. The government can only tax what is working. Wait the foreigners start to realize that the cancerous Ontario government debt is going to become their problem.
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How about simply ban all these foreign non-residents and immediately force them to hand back out the property they purchased, just like how the Australian government made those Chinese money laundering cheaters do so.
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Wrong on multiple fronts.
1st You cannot get a loan you cannot afford in Canada. Provided you keep your job. Regulation's been tighter in the last few years. Sure, there may be a few who find a way around regulations, not nearly enough to create big problems.
2nd Interest rates are not going up anytime soon and when they will, it will be in lock-step with growth in the economy as a whole. Only when CB's (BOC) start rising rates specifically to curb market 'speculation', but not warranted by other fundamentals (as it was the case in US - 17 consecutive rate hikes!! Yaikes!) do asset prices fall.
3rd 'Overbuilding' is not a problem in TO and Van, at least not in the detached segment, which is the hottest. Even the slack in condos is being absorbed, since there are so many people moving to these places. When that stops, if ever, we'll talk again.
4th Not talking at all about international factors? Canada smells like roses compared to most places in the world. When we achieve World Peace, sure, people will lose interest. When do you figure that will happen? -
Well put, a very succinct video as expressed by the author. Hopefully we
the people of Canada can take action and imprison these Asian money
thieves as well as the criminal politicians who sit idly by. -
Low interest rates drive housing prices up in two ways. 1) they allow people to 'service' a much higher mortgage with the same payments 2) they create a hunt for yield with results in rich people parking money in real estate to avoid low / negative rates. Negative rates clearly aren't working, so I think we're reaching an end of the Fed bubble.
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would like update video
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So when's it going to happen. I've been waiting for years? What are some of the first couple of signs to look for and maybe a timeline in your opinion. Thank you great info great job on the video to
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