Author: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 5th Assessment report, scientists outlined four emission scenarios that serve as ballparks for future climate conditions. In this video, two of these scenarios are compared across the globe. The strictest of the four emission scenarios (left) gives an average global temperature increase of 1°C by 2100; the laxest of the four emission scenarios (right) gives an average global temperature increase of 3.7°C. The scenario on the right shows the strongest simulated change for the Arctic, which is predicted to heat by more than 10 degrees. In both scenarios, temperature increases are more pronounced over land than over the oceans, as water doesn’t heat as quickly and works as a balancing (cooling) agent. Scientists have made great progress in modeling potential future conditions and are striving for increased predictive skill. As weather forecasting extends from daily to weekly out to seasonal scales, climate predictions must move from centennial scales through decadal toward seasonal. Improving predictions presents an encompassing challenge for groups such as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), who must develop and disseminate a compelling message to sustain the focus and commitment of the research community in the face of substation social, political, and financial obstacles. Read more about WCRP's future plans in Eos.org. https://eos.org/opinions/future-directions-for-the-world-climate-research-programme Credit: DKRZ (Deutsches KlimaRechenZentrum) and MPI-M (Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie).