Will India Ever Become a Superpower?

Will, India, Ever, Become, a, Superpower?, Will India Ever Become a Superpower? This question originally appeared on Quora, the knowledge-sharing network where compelling questions are answered by people with unique insights. You can follow Quora on Twitter, Facebook, and Google Plus. Answer by Igor Markov, EECS professor at Michigan, currently at Google: This is possible but not at all easy. For the sake of long-term analysis, let's neglect some of India's current weaknesses that may get resolved in 10-20 years and focus on fundamentals and their manifestations. India's economy is projected to reach the No. 3 spot by 2020 (by at least some analysts and metrics; it's already there by purchasing power parity), surpassing Japan, and trailing only China (No. 1) and the U.S. (No. 2). In view of China's recent economic troubles and suspicious accounting, China's ascent is in doubt, but India's upward path seems more certain (say, by 2030), as its excesses have been smaller so far. Of course, India's economy must become more robust and structurally sound, while the legal system must strengthen as well, and corruption must be addressed. Going forward, India has huge potential due to its large population, a longstanding tradition of democracy and stable government system with non-violent transitions, convenient location for trade, proximity to major oil exporters, decent standing in the world, a large English-speaking population, massive engineering education that is gradually improving in quality, and a system of research and development institutions. India's current weakness is limited global reach. In particular, the BRICs group is looking less and less promising due to significant divergence between its members (some are in deep recession, some need oil to be expensive, while others prefer cheap oil, etc). However, the G-20 has been increasingly relevant. Should India and China reach the status of developed economies (perhaps in 20 years), they may be added to the G-7 forum. In general, faster development of the world economy should help developing countries to catch up, but in a slower world economy the developed countries will preserve their lead. India's military is ranked No. 4 in 2015 by Global Firepower after the U.S., Russia, and China, and followed by the U.K. While this is unlikely to change by 2020, I expect Russia to drop out from the top three in 10-20 years, due to the effects of protracted financial crisis, economic stagnation, and deteriorating demographics. In contrast, both India and the U.K. are primed to significantly increase their military strength by 2025. With two new supercarriers, the U.K. will have a stronger navy (currently, U.K.'s navy is considered slightly weaker than India’s). The recently announced massive new purchase program for strike aircraft can make the U.K. air force stronger as well (it is currently judged weaker than India's and is a lot smaller). India's initial bet on Russian fifth-generation fighters (PAK FA) has gone sour. The supersonic cruise missile Brahmos jointly developed by India and Russia isn't deployed by Russia for some reason (despite its availability) and does not have direct analogues in NATO countries, while NATO can technically develop one. This raises doubts about the operational effectiveness of this primarily anti-ship missile. Even today, India cannot project power away from its borders nearly as efficiently as the U.K. can (due to the U.K.'s bases and close defense relations with NATO). And India has no military alliences like NATO and the Five Eyes. India is likely to remain the No. 4 military power through 2030, but if Russia is replaced by the U.K. in the top three, this can increase India's significance because the U.K. is a part of the already strong NATO. It's really hard to guess the military developments by 2050, but the NATO militaries will clearly become increasingly unmanned, negating population handicaps and leveraging new technology, while other countries are likely to lag behind. The extent of this trend will be determined by specific technology developments and economic health of the countries involved.